Red Bull’s dismissal of Liam Lawson after only two races was a ruthless decision, brutal even by their standards. Yet while it was neither unexpected nor particularly surprising, there is more to it than simple dissatisfaction with an underperforming driver. Replacing him with Yuki Tsunoda was a U-turn that indicates fundamental problems the team are facing, ones to which they are unlikely to find a quick fix, and that Max Verstappen is unhappy at their performance and indeed their prospects for the new season.
Lawson, who had already looked shell-shocked by the close of the second race in China last weekend, was left entreating the team to just give him a little more time. Red Bull were not forthcoming. On Thursday morning they announced he would be replaced by Tsunoda from their sister team, RB, the Japanese driver having originally been passed over for the seat in Lawson’s favour at the end of last season.
The New Zealander was less experienced but expected to be better able to come up to speed and to come closer to matching Verstappen, the defending world champion, but it really did not go to plan. He endured the worst sequence of qualifying in the team’s history, 18th in Australia, 20th for the sprint in China and 20th for the GP. Then he crashed out in the race at Melbourne and went pointless in both races at Shanghai.
Far from being close to Verstappen he was not even that close to the midfield, flailing with a car he could barely manage and with no obvious indication that he was going to come to terms with it, although two races is a very short time for anyone with only 11 grands prix under his belt to have a handle on a brand new ride.
So Red Bull pulled the trigger. Yet it is impossible not to surmise there was more to it than Lawson not being up to scratch. The team are simply not where they expected to be at the start of this season. Having endured the second half of last year with a car that was unstable and sorely lacking in balance – which Verstappen nonetheless still managed to drag to the title – the target had been to address the issues over the winter and come back with a solid drive for the Dutchman’s defence and to vie for the constructors’ championship.
In the statement announcing the switch, Christian Horner conceded as much. “We acknowledge there is a lot of work to be done with the RB21,” the team principal said. Which in F1 terms is a seismic admission from a man in his position. The expected development of the car has not been achieved and even in Verstappen’s hands it is at best still well behind the McLaren and perhaps struggling to match the Mercedes.
When they took Lawson on, this was not expected to be the case but given it is then Tsunoda, with 89 grands prix under his belt, suddenly looks the better option to help work through the problems, as Horner acknowledged. “Yuki’s experience will prove highly beneficial in helping to develop the current car,” he said.
Red Bull enjoyed a hugely dominant car in 2022 and 2023, especially, but the direction it has gone in since has not proved beneficial, while the opposition has caught up and in McLaren’s case leapt ahead. Verstappen has been making this point for no short time now and doubtless is not satisfied that the shortcomings remain. That he is less than impressed with the team’s handling of the situation might be gauged by the fact that he liked a post on Instagram by the former F1 driver Giedo van der Garde, who described Red Bull’s treatment of Lawson as “closer to bullying or a panic move”.
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Verstappen’s talent, then, has masked the limitations and deficiencies that the team have failed to sort out and Red Bull are now paying the price. Tsunoda must be seen as part of the process of addressing this, and Lawson almost as collateral damage. Yet in mitigation for the New Zealander, there is also another fundamental hurdle for any number-two driver at Red Bull and that is that the car has long been designed to suit the strengths of their world champion.
Verstappen enjoys a very pointy front to the car, with oversteer, to enjoy a sharp turn-in to the corner, ramped up as far as possible. “That’s where [he] excels,” said Horner in China. “That’s where he’s able to live on a knife’s edge of adhesion and he’s just constantly asking for more and more front out of the car.”
The side effect of this, as Horner noted, is that it makes the rear of the car unsettled, loose on corner entry, which can be enormously hard to control and adapt to, especially if you are new to it. Which, in turn, can grind away at the confidence, leaving drivers bereft and questioning their own abilities. Sergio Pérez was nowhere near as woeful a driver as his performances for the last two years at Red Bull suggested but he simply could not handle the car. Lawson replaced him only to find himself in similar deep water and now Tsunoda has a shot at this poisoned chalice.
He will face a similarly tough challenge, a huge test of his skill and his mettle, but for Red Bull his appointment is part of a far bigger picture. They need to adapt, to develop and to do it fast, and it is Tsunoda’s potential ability to cope with the fundamental frailties of the car and deliver feedback on how to fix it that has put him in the hot seat. If he too is found wanting, Red Bull have very few options left.